THE HONEST AI THESIS

How to Capitalize Before You're Left Behind

This week: Citrini's report. AI displacement spiral. S&P 3500 thesis.

My take: Real risk, wrong entry.

Here's where to buy.

Citrini wrote a report about AI replacing everyone. He probably used AI to write it. I definitely used AI to help write my response.

The irony isn't lost on me. But at least I proofread it and fed it my own thesis.

Citrini dropped a report this week. The AI displacement spiral. S&P to 3500. Mortgages cracking. Everyone's acting like this is news.

This isn't new to us.

Vault members were prepped about these scenarios last year. We mapped the risks. We built the entries. We've been waiting.

This is the counter report. Not what might happen — we already covered that. This is what steps to take and how to capitalize before you're left behind.

WHAT EVERYONE'S PANICKING ABOUT

This is not 2000. In 2000 we had promises. Now we have receipts.

Citrini's thesis is simple:

• AI works
• AI replaces white collar jobs
• White collar workers stop spending
• Consumer economy collapses
• S&P to 3500

They're not bears because AI is fake. They're bears because AI is real.

They call it the "Intelligence Displacement Spiral." AI gets better, companies cut headcount, workers spend less, companies invest more in AI, AI gets better. No natural brake.

It's a good report. But if you've been paying attention, none of this is new.

WHAT'S ACTUALLY INSIDE THAT $1.1 TRILLION

The circular backlog? We mapped it.

Microsoft has $625B in backlog. Break it down:

• OpenAI: $281B (45% of total)
• Anthropic: $30B
• Actual enterprise customers: $314B

Who funds OpenAI? Microsoft. They own 49%.

Who funds Anthropic? Amazon and Google.

30-40% of that $1.1T hyperscaler backlog is AI labs spending money they got from the same companies booking the backlog.

That's like counting your P&L before the trade confirms. It might hit. But you don't size in on might.

And it's not just funding risk.

This week the Pentagon threatened to give Anthropic the Huawei treatment — designating them a "supply chain risk" — because they refused to remove safety restrictions for military use. That designation would force every defense contractor in America to certify they don't use Claude.

One political decision. $30B in backlog gone.

OpenAI, Google, and xAI already agreed to remove their safeguards. Anthropic said no. Now they're being punished for it.

This is the kind of risk that's not priced into that $1.1 trillion number.

Vault members knew this. We built entries around it.

THE DISPLACEMENT RISK IS REAL

White collar workers are 50% of employment and 75% of discretionary spending.

If AI eats those jobs, it eats the consumer economy. That's not fear-mongering. That's math.

Citrini is right about this. The Vault has been positioned for it.

The $13 trillion mortgage market is underwritten on one assumption — that borrowers keep their $180k product manager jobs.

What happens when Claude does that job for $200/month?

These aren't hypotheticals anymore. This is the setup.

WHERE THE MONEY GOES

Here's the hole in Citrini's thesis.

The money doesn't disappear. It moves.

White collar workers lose jobs. That's real. But the productivity gains flow to the companies doing the replacing. Margins expand. Earnings beat. Stocks rip.

Who owns the stocks? The top 10% own 87% of equities. They account for roughly half of consumer spending. When their portfolios double, they spend more.

Citrini assumes spending collapses. I think spending concentrates.

Labor loses. Capital wins. The trade is: be on the capital side at the right price.

THE EDISON LESSON

I was reading about Thomas Edison the other day.

Edison was building the future. Electricity was going to change everything. And it did. Production nearly quadrupled in a decade.

The technology was winning. The investors were losing.

Edison Electric declined. Westinghouse went bankrupt. Most utilities failed.

Edison himself basically said he was done with it:

"I cannot waste my time over electric lighting matters, for they are old... I simply want to get as large dividends as possible from such stock as I hold."

Even the guy who built it gave up on the stocks.

That's Citrini's thesis from 130 years ago.

But here's what he missed: The guys who bought utilities in 1910 — after the crash, at the right price — made fortunes.

Timing matters. Price matters more.

THE ACTUAL QUESTION

Citrini is asking: "Will AI break the economy?"

I'm asking: "At what price is it a good trade?"

Buy at prices that assume AI labs crush it, enterprise adoption explodes, and displacement never happens — you're betting on perfection.

Buy at prices that assume AI labs contribute nothing and the bear case plays out — any success is free upside.

That's the difference between Edison's investors who got wiped out and the guys who waited for the right price.

HERE'S WHERE TO BUY

This newsletter is Part 1. It's the thesis.

Part 2 is where I put my money. Fair values. Entry zones. LEAPS structure. The full playbook.

For paid subscribers: You have access to Part 2. Read it.

For everyone else:

DM me THESIS on X or IG — I'll walk through the thinking and answer your questions.

Want the full playbook? DM me VAULT. That's what the Vault is for — full methodology, live entries, all the trades.

This isn't hype. This isn't a signal service. This is research + execution + proof.

Ghostz Trading

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